![]() The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee-the official recession scorekeeper-defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” The variables the committee typically tracks include real personal income minus government transfers, employment, various forms of real consumer spending, and industrial production. Based on these data, it is unlikely that the decline in GDP in the first quarter of this year-even if followed by another GDP decline in the second quarter-indicates a recession. Instead, both official determinations of recessions and economists’ assessment of economic activity are based on a holistic look at the data-including the labor market, consumer and business spending, industrial production, and incomes. What is a recession? While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle. Get Involved Show submenu for “Get Involved””. ![]() The White House Show submenu for “The White House””.Office of the United States Trade Representative.Office of Science and Technology Policy.Executive Offices Show submenu for “Executive Offices””.Administration Show submenu for “Administration””.
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